Health economic modelling  

Modelling is an essential part of health economic analyses. It is a central tool for authorities, experts and payers to support decision-making regarding healthcare resource utilization. With the help of modelling, fragmented research data, observations and experiences, as well as justified assumptions, are compiled into a synthesis that aims at anticipating and predicting the impact of healthcare interventions on individuals, patient groups, healthcare and the society. Modelling is also a manner of managing uncertainty related to a specific phenomenon with sensitivity analyses. An ideal model not only responds to the decision maker’s question on the most likely outcome but also on the question concerning the likelihood of extreme scenarios and the credibility of the results.

In its most general form, modelling relates to the cost-effectiveness of an intervention. This means that the costs – i.e. the use of healthcare resources (direct costs) and potential production losses (indirect costs) – are examined together with the health benefits of the intervention. This can be done either in terms of different effectiveness units (e.g. more life years or clinical surrogate variables) measured or in terms of the quality of life impact (utility and quality-adjusted life years). Another common target of modelling is the budget impact of an intervention. In this case, the focus is on the intervention’s impact on the use of resources. These can be even directly related to the intervention or indirectly to the entire treatment path of a patient.

Medaffcon has the ability to complete modelling projects from the localisation of the customer’s ready global core models to the comprehensive construction of models from the beginning.

The final outcomes of the projects are for example used in:

  • authority contexts
  • negotiations with decision-makers and payers at different levels
  • support of sales and marketing, for example in material production or tailor-made tools used in sales situations
”The purpose of modelling is to provide tools for the clients and decision makers for managing and predicting future uncertainty. Modelling provides information for decision-making and for discussions with public authorities and healthcare payers.”
Jarmo Hahl
Managing Director, Medaffcon Oy
”Modeling enables the combination of information from multiple sources and thus the evaluation of effectiveness and cost-effectiveness. The analysis can be based on any kind of information, such as the results of clinical trials or real world data.”
Tatu Sainio
Sr. Health Economist & Access & HE Lead, Medaffcon Oy

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Tatu Sainio
Sr. Health Economist
Access & HE Lead

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Our Health Economic Modelling Experts:

Tatu Sainio
Sr. Health Economist
Access & HE Lead

Tatu Sainio

Sr. Health Economist
Access & HE Lead
M.Sc. (Economics & Health Economics)

+358 44 530 5525 LinkedIn

Tatu joined Medaffcon in the fall of 2016. Tatu holds two Master’s degrees majoring in marketing and health economics. Before joining Medaffcon Tatu worked in the pharmaceutical industry at Boehringer Ingelheim as an Account Manager. At Medaffcon Tatu works mainly with health technology assessments and is the access & health economics team lead. Through his educational and professional background, Tatu has a wide range of expertise in the pharmaceutical industry and understands the needs of each function.

Tatu’s strength is his comprehensive understanding of the pharmaceutical industry and healthcare environment. Tatu is particularly interested in the possibility to turn data into understandable information to support healthcare decision-making. “I love the hype around the utilization of real-world effectiveness and cost-effectiveness data. Now we need steps to include the data as a systematic part of the decision-making process, which allows optimal allocation of resources.”


Jarmo Hahl
Managing Director

Jarmo Hahl

Managing Director
M.Sc. (Economics)

+358 40 139 4001 LinkedIn

Jarmo joined Medaffcon as a partner and CEO in 2010, having previously worked in various expert and management positions in pharma companies for eight years. Jarmo has a degree in economics and before entering the pharmaceutical industry he held an office at the Turku School of Economics and also worked as a research fellow at Turku University Hospital.

Jarmo has strong expertise in new health technology innovations and how the demands and expectations of authorities, markets and customers are matched. He also brings to Medaffcon extensive experience in health economics and its applications in research and commercialization, as well as a broad understanding of the ever-changing operating environment. “From the access point of view, the Finnish health technology market is constantly becoming more demanding and therefore also more attractive from my point of view. On the other hand, increasing demands to demonstrate the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of healthcare are broadening the scope and opportunities for Medaffcon to be involved in the development of healthcare as a whole.”


Heini Honkanen
Health Economist

Heini Honkanen

Health Economist
M.Sc. (Health Economics)

+358 44 326 4477 LinkedIn

Heini joined Medaffcon’s Market Access team in May 2018. Heini has graduated in Health Economics at the University of Eastern Finland, and her master’s thesis discusses risk-sharing agreements in the pharmaceutical market.

Heini is interested in the changes occurring in the pharmaceutical and healthcare industries as well as in the possibilities of Health Economics in assessing the methods and economic resources in the field. Heini’s assets include her state-of-the-art theoretical knowledge in the field of Health Economics, combined with practice- and patient-oriented thinking.


Lotta Koski
Health Economist

Lotta Koski

Health Economist
M.Sc. (Health Economics)

+358 50 431 5869 LinkedIn

Lotta joined Medaffcon in spring 2017. Lotta holds a master’s degree in Health Sciences, Health Economics as her major. In her master`s thesis, Lotta analysed how real-world data can be utilised in the assessment of drug costs. Lotta has worked at Orion during her studies. 

Lotta brings to Medaffcon`s team expertise in Health Economics that she applies in health technology assessments and price and reimbursement processes. 

In the field, Lotta`s special interests are to work for the benefit of patients and how health economic information is utilised in health care decision making. “I believe that knowledge of health economics and the need for health economic information will play an increasingly important role in future health care.” 


Triin Männik
Health Economist

Triin Männik

Health Economist
M.Sc. (Health Economics)

+358 40 768 1525 LinkedIn

Triin joined Medaffcon´s health economic team in April 2015. Triin´s main field of responsibilities are health economic and pharmaceuticals market access related projects, for example, health economic evaluations and price and reimbursement applications. During the consultant career at Medaffcon, Triin has also been an in-house consultant for one pharma company in Market Access Manager role for almost two years. 

Triin has a Master of Science degree majoring Health Economics and a degree as a registered nurse. Triin has previous working experience from the pharmaceutical industry in Market Access function and from an operating theatre in the public sector. 

“It´s great to be involved in the constantly developing field of health care and market access, such as conditional reimbursement, risk-sharing agreements at hospitals, and HTAs, to mention just a few examples. The best thing about my job is to promote the use of cost-effective health care technologies.”


Tanja Nieminen
Health Economist & Scientific Project Manager

Tanja Nieminen

Health Economist & Scientific Project Manager
M.Sc. (Health Economics & Economics)

+358 50 328 6651 LinkedIn

Tanja joined Medaffcon’s team in November 2016. Before that, she worked as a researcher at the National Institute for Health and Welfare. Tanja has also worked in an international research group, as a course instructor as well as in financial administration and customer service. She holds MSc degrees in both Health Economics and the field of Economics and Business Administration.  

Tanja’s strengths include her educational and occupational background in health economics from Finland and abroad. Tanja has a special interest in utilizing real-world evidence data to be used in evaluations. “By utilizing data resources to support decision-making we become more aware of how scarce resources should be allocated.”